Upon the eve of Constitution Day - what inglorious timing - knowledgeable experts confirmed rumors that the Barack H. Obama Administration would shelve or discontinue the well-known George W. Bush Administration plans to build a missile-defense system in the Czech Republic and in Poland. The prior week the Russian Foreign Minister had revealed the Russian Government’s understanding that such a United States decision soon would be forthcoming. Since then there has been considerable pronouncement, theorizing and speculation, of varying degrees of expertise and objectivity, as to motivations of the Obama Administration, reactions of foreign governments and dangers to the United States.
With respect to any shield in Europe, as distinguished from the Far East and North Korea, American, and numerous other, experts perceive the threat or risk of threat primarily to be guided missiles from Iran. There also is concern about a Russian-launch possibility although the measure of that concern appears to be substantially less.
In 2002 an informal entity was formed called the Independent Working Group on Post-ABM Treaty Missile Defense and the Space Relationship (“IWG”). IWG is chaired by Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. The IWG personnel roster is impressive, including among others former Ambassador Henry F. Cooper and a retired Vice Admiral whose assignments included that of Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Naval Warfare. The roster also includes a host of prominent scholars and officials from notable organizations: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University; Heritage Foundation; Claremont Institute; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; American Foreign Policy Council; Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis; George C. Marshall Institute; Institute of the North; University of Virginia Center for National Security Law - and, perhaps to some unexpectedly, Free Congress Foundation.
There already has been, and undoubtedly will be, much activity and commentary among independent experts, diplomats, Members of both Houses of Congress, Federal officials, media and other commentators, possibly military personnel.
Innumerable questions have been, and will be, asked. Among them ought to be, in no particular order: How dangerous is the Iranian guided-missile threat? Is there, or might there be, a Russian or other European and/or Near Eastern guided-missile threat? What did the United States gain in relations with Russia or any other sovereignty by terminating the program? What is the likely timetable for development of more extended - for example, inter-continental - missiles?
Whatever the answers, we do not want reverse lyrics imposed upon us:
“Missiles bursting in air
Give proof through the night
Our safety is not there.”
The IWG, with continued Free Congress Foundation participation, will persevere in seeking to define reality and causing reality to become policy.
Marion Edwyn Harrison is President of, and Counsel to, the Free Congress Foundation.
